Chocks: The Geopolitical Landscape of Kashmir

The Geopolitical Landscape of Kashmir

Note

This essay provides insights into the geopolitical situation in Kashmir as of May 2025, based on available data. It offers a brief overview of key developments and potential future scenarios but does not seek to offer a definitive conclusion. The speculative views discussed may or may not materialize. The intent is not to offend any individual, group, or nation. Readers are encouraged to explore additional resources for a more comprehensive understanding of the Kashmir issue.

Synopsis

Introduction
India - China Relations
Kashmir Attacks
Internal Security Failures
Military Escalations
US Intervention
Post-Ceasefire Speeches
Position of India and Pakistan
India's Diplomatic Failures
Conclusion
Personal Reflections
Reference

Introduction

In February 2023, large lithium deposits were found in Kashmir, estimated at 5.9 million tonnes, making the region a focus of global economic and geopolitical competition. Lithium, an essential component in the production of batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, is crucial for the transition to a greener global economy.

China, already dominant in South Asia, has sought to expand its influence in Kashmir through Pakistan. However, this effort may have become more complicated as the US also shows increased interest. This could have led to competition for access to lithium deposits due to rising demand, creating complex interactions between India, Pakistan, China, and the US. These dynamics are reshaping diplomatic, military, and economic relations.

India - China Relations

In January 2025, India and China reached a preliminary agreement to resume flight operations for the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, a significant religious pilgrimage. Initially, there was hope for progress, but the deal faced delays. During this time, China was grappling with the economic fallout of the US - China trade war, which began in February 2025 when the US imposed new tariffs on China. By April 2025, these tariffs were also extended to India, adding pressure on India's economy. However, the impact on India was less severe than on China, creating new opportunities for India to increase exports to the US

This shift allowed China to use India strategically, and by March 2025, the formal resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and flight services became a reality. This move is viewed as a significant step in enhancing India - China relations, especially in the wake of the prolonged military standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh.

Kashmir Attacks

In April 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, India, resulted in the deaths of 26 people. Several Indian media outlets sensationalized patriotism for TRP ratings and fostered separatist mindsets, claiming that the terrorists specifically targeted Hindus by identifying the victims by their names, despite the lack of concrete evidence to support these allegations. It was also speculated that two of the four terrorists behind the Pahalgam attack were from South Kashmir and may have guided tourists to the site.

According to a report by Soumiya Pillai from "The Print", US satellite company Maxar began receiving high-resolution image orders for Pahalgam, India, around June last year after partnering with Pakistani geospatial firm BSI. The number of orders reached its peak in February, two months before the Pahalgam attack. Maxar denied that BSI had placed the orders but quietly removed it from its partner list after concerns were raised. This decision came at a time when there was increased scrutiny on BSI and its owner, who had previously been convicted for illegally exporting technology to Pakistan’s nuclear agency.

Internal Security Failures
The Indian Government was quick to blame Pakistan for the attack but did not acknowledge its own internal security lapses, which significantly heightened tensions between the two countries. During an all-party meeting, it was reported that hotel owners had taken tourists into the protected area of Pahalgam without informing the police, noting that security is typically arranged only during the Amarnath Yatra. It was also mentioned that the Yatra is set to begin on July 3, and Pahalgam is expected to open on June 15 with proper security in place.
However, Government sources dismissed these claims as false, clarifying that Pahalgam remains open to the public year-round, except during the Amarnath Yatra. An official added that a maintenance contract worth Rs.3 crores had been awarded to a local resident in August 2024. Additionally, there are no official records or notifications declaring Pahalgam a protected tourist site, directly contradicting the statements made during the all-party meeting. Ultimately, these security concerns could affect India's diplomatic stance.
Military Escalations

In retaliation, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, under which around 70% of the river flow goes to Pakistan, and also began deporting Pakistani nationals, moves that Pakistan considered acts of war. Following this, India targeted 9 terrorist camps in Pakistan under the name Operation Sindoor, while Pakistan escalated violence across several Indian states, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, and Kashmir, with the Poonch attack being particularly significant. India struck back in several locations in Pakistan. The ongoing conflict marked a significant shift, as Pakistan launched attacks in several states simultaneously, moving away from its previous focus on Kashmir. Both sides have acknowledged suffering casualties but have not disclosed specific numbers.

It is important to note that both India and Pakistan lack strong military-industrial bases and rely heavily on weapon imports from other countries, making them vulnerable to external pressure. With backing from China and Turkey, Pakistan gained a strategic advantage by deploying advanced military technologies such as China’s PL-15 missile system, which proved effective in countering the capabilities of India’s French-made Rafale fighter jets. Meanwhile, India lacked direct international support in the ongoing conflict, as noted by various global media outlets.

US Intervention

Initially, the US condemned the Pahalgam attacks. The US President also called India's militant attack shameful, while Vice President J.D.Vance stated that a war between India and Pakistan would not be the US's concern. US officials urged both countries to ease tensions without requiring broader intervention.

When speculative reports surfaced linking Pakistan's potential nuclear tests to minor earthquakes in the region, tensions escalated quickly. Western media outlets reported that the US intervened diplomatically, stressing the urgency of a ceasefire due to “Alarming Intelligence” it had received. The US subsequently brokered a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan and offered to host peace talks in a neutral third country. Meanwhile, US - China discussions on tax matters concluded in Geneva in May 2025, offering a potential path to ease broader trade tensions. Amid escalating tensions, the unified backing of an IMF loan to Pakistan by the US, China, and other global powers marks a crucial and strategic move against India. There is uncertainty over whether the US is using the Adani scam case as a political tool against India.

Critics in India have raised concerns about the US equating India with Pakistan, questioning India's foreign policy. Meanwhile, after a three-day conflict, the 78 year old dispute came to a swift end, with troops withdrawing from both sides. Both India and Pakistan officially agreed to a ceasefire and announced plans to reduce their troop presence along the border.

Given Kashmir's strategic importance and to avoid the risk of a full-scale war in the near future, some experts believe the US may offer to deploy a peacekeeping force in the region. It is also important to note that US President Trump, who has shown interest in acquiring Greenland, the Panama Canal, and Gaza, has now set his sights on Kashmir. This move could provide the US with a strategic presence in the region by removing both Indian and Pakistani troops under the pretext of promoting peace. This could potentially lead to Trump being considered for a Nobel Peace Prize, a long-standing campaign promoted by his supporters, given his reputation as an anti-war leader and a strategic figure who seeks to achieve peace without resorting to violence. Kashmir's geopolitical significance, especially its vast lithium reserves, aligns with US interests in countering China’s expanding influence in South Asia. A primary objective would be to facilitate the extraction of valuable lithium resources, benefiting tech giants like Elon Musk, who could leverage this mineral wealth for their ventures. It’s important to note that the removal of Article 370 allows people from outside Kashmir to own land there.

Post-Ceasefire Speeches

In a televised address after the ceasefire, Prime Minister Modi asserted that India would not be threatened by nuclear blackmail and praised the courage and dedication of the Indian armed forces. He said that Operation Sindoor was a pledge for justice and claimed that India had dealt significant blows to Pakistan, compelling it to seek international mediation to prevent further escalation. However, he did not respond to remarks made by US President Trump over the conflict. Modi largely reiterated points already made by India’s Foreign Secretary, without providing any new details, which led to criticism, including from some of his own supporters.

Trump addressed a speech that was contradictory to Modi's, and both occurred at the same time. US President Trump claimed that the US had warned both India and Pakistan that trade ties would be suspended if hostilities continued. He suggested that American intervention played a crucial role in preventing the situation from escalating into a nuclear conflict, hinting to Pakistan that such a scenario could have resulted in millions of casualties.

Modi and Jaishankar didn't directly deny Trump's statement, possibly because it's hard to refute. Instead, a spokesperson from India's Ministry of External Affairs said that trade wasn't part of talks with the US about the India-Pakistan tensions. However, Trump contradicted this in another speech, claiming that his negotiations, which included suspending trade, helped prevent war. The issue may keep going unless Modi or Jaishankar directly address Trump's statement.

Position of India and Pakistan

Following the ceasefire, media reports indicated that Pakistan launched brief attacks on several Indian border districts. During a press conference, the Indian Government provided several details about the military operations but refrained from addressing the attacks that occurred after the ceasefire was implemented. Additionally, they did not comment on the peace talks process.

India stands at a crucial juncture in its foreign policy, with the potential erosion of its sovereignty looming large. The US having the upper hand in India's internal matters could fundamentally reshape the country’s position on the global stage and potentially dilute the legacies of past leaders such as Nehru’s policy of non-alignment, Indira Gandhi’s creation of Bangladesh, Rajiv Gandhi’s Operation Cactus in the Maldives, and Manmohan Singh’s diplomatic isolation of Pakistan following the 26/11 attacks.

Pakistan's internal economic struggles, coupled with separatist movements in Balochistan and political attacks from opposition parties, have further complicated the situation. In seeking external support, Pakistan has strengthened its alliance with China, adding another layer of complexity to the Kashmir conflict. This shift in alliances has not only strained relations with India but has also positioned Pakistan more strongly with its global partners. Additionally, the recent acknowledgment by Pakistan's Defence Minister that Pakistan has been doing the West's dirty work for decades provides an important context for understanding the West's role in South Asia.

India's Diplomatic Failures

In 2022, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh remarked, “In my 10 years as Prime Minister, I ensured that India’s dignity was consistently upheld on the global stage. I hope the current Prime Minister understands that foreign policy is not about gestures like hugs, swings, or surprise biryani visits.” This sharp critique reflects growing concerns about the current Government's weak diplomatic approach, particularly in light of India's increasing global isolation and the lack of direct international support on the Kashmir issue. The Indian Government’s inability to provide convincing evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in the Pahalgam attack has allowed Pakistan to influence the narrative, suggesting that the violence stems from local Kashmiri resentment over the abrogation of Article 370 and perceived anti-Islam policies, as reported by Pakistani media outlets.

Although the militant attack ended abruptly, there has been no progress in the investigation of the Pahalgam attack. In the absence of clarity, some Indian media outlets have promoted theories suggesting the success of Operation Sindoor, seemingly as a distraction from shortcomings in Indian diplomacy. This does not appear to be a case of ignorance but rather a deliberate act of dishonesty. Despite Pakistan's continued support for cross-border terrorism, recent IMF loans granted to Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack and military escalations between India and Pakistan underscore India’s inability to secure a favorable global position. This diplomatic shortfall is further illustrated by China’s land grabs in Ladakh, highlighting India's failure to anticipate and counter emerging geopolitical threats.

The situation became more complicated when India and Pakistan unexpectedly halted their military campaign under pressure from the United States. Social media was flooded with questions regarding India's decision to halt the war. Unlike the carefully negotiated ceasefires of the past, this operation was called off within just three days, reportedly following a phone call from US Vice President J.D.Vance to Prime Minister Modi. The premature termination left the root causes of the conflict, particularly Pakistan’s support for terrorism, unresolved, exposing the Indian Government’s inability to negotiate from a position of strength. These developments reflect significant gaps in India’s foreign policy and strategic planning.

Meanwhile, the global narrative surrounding Kashmir has shifted. The region's geopolitical importance, particularly regarding its lithium reserves, has attracted the attention of powers like the US and China. Both have adopted positions that effectively shield Pakistan from accountability, thereby weakening India's stance. The Kashmir conflict, reignited by the abrogation of Article 370, has now reached a critical point. Some experts propose a referendum to give the people of Kashmir the chance to determine their own future, while others suggest that reinstating Article 370 could help restore stability and reduce tensions. Additionally, India needs a fundamental reset in its foreign policy. A more strategic, balanced, and principled approach is essential to restoring India's global standing and addressing the ongoing crisis in Kashmir.

Conclusion

The four Indo - Pak wars of 1947-48, 1965, 1971, and 1999, along with the two Indo - Sino wars of 1962 and 1965, were primarily driven by the Kashmir dispute. Today, the US is directly involved, while Russia's role remains uncertain. Currently, available data indicates that China has played a significant role in supporting Pakistan through arms supplies and strategic backing, while the US has been instrumental in mediating ceasefires between India and Pakistan and closely monitoring the political developments in South Asia.

The future of Kashmir, a disputed region between India and Pakistan, remains uncertain, with countries like the US and China playing key roles. Kashmir’s strategic location and resources, such as lithium, add to the tension. The US and China likely have shared interests in these resources and in global influence, especially now that their trade war has calmed. It is unfortunate to observe that the region's stability may depend on how the roles of the US and China continue to evolve. A multitude of events are yet to unfold around Kashmir, which could significantly reshape the Indian political landscape in the near future.

Personal Reflections

Corporate giants like Elon Musk from the US or Adani and Ambani from India, are likely to benefit from Kashmir's lithium reserves, potentially extracting and exporting lithium to countries including the US and China, while leveraging geopolitical tensions to their advantage. India remains open to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), supporting only those foreign investments in Kashmir that operate within the framework set by the Indian Government. Although discussions aimed at peace are welcome, any direct political interference by foreign countries in our internal affairs cannot be permitted, as it would undermine the sovereignty of our nation.

While we may have differing views on the current Government, one thing that unites us is our commitment to protecting India's sovereignty. A good example of this spirit can be seen in the actions of C.N.Annadurai, who, after withdrawing from the Dravida Nadu movement, supported India during the Indo - Sino war and even contributed funds to the war effort. Similarly, Kalaignar donated Rs.6 crores to Indira Gandhi and passed a resolution condemning Pakistan's aggression in 1971. In 1999, during the Kargil war, he also donated Rs.50 crores to Atal Bihari Vajpayee. In the same spirit, M.K.Stalin condemned the Pahalgam attack through a resolution and participated in a rally to express solidarity with the Indian Army.